After years of reticence to reengage as the situation in Libya increasingly spiraled out of control, the European powers—and particularly France and Italy—are finally wading into the debate over how to put an end to the civil war which has wracked the country for the better part of a decade. The ball is currently in Rome’s court, with the Italian government organizing a conference in Sicily on November 12-13 to “find a common solution, even though there will be different opinions around the table.”
Why the about face? Beyond the issue of migration, volatile oil prices, coupled with uncertainty over the ultimate fate of Iranian crude, are the international community added incentive to take the country seriously: analysts are increasingly looking to Libya and Nigeria as the only swing producers that could keep oil under the $100 mark.
The fluctuations in the oil markets are obviously more complex than that, but Libya’s growing output has nonetheless been able to stave off some unexpected production declines – such as the 150,000 bpd drop in Iranian production that was offset by Libya’s 100,000 bpd jump. Saudi Arabia boasts that its total spare capacity is in excess of 1.3 million bpd, but that won’t cover the almost 2 million bpd Iran exported in August. With the Trump administration’s Iran sanctions kicking back in November 5, Libya’s importance to the stability of the global oil markets will only increase in importance.
As Libya’s role grows, so does Europe’s new-look engagement. While the Italians are sending out invitations to Sicily, the French are continuing to push for the December 10 elections they got the opposing sides to agree to back in May. Rather than encouraging immediate elections, the Italian government promised $5 billion of investment in exchange for Libya cracking down on migrants in the Mediterranean ... To read the full story please Click Here to Login or Register
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